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A coastal country in West Africa, Guinea shares borders with six countries (Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and C?te d¡¯Ivoire) and had a population of 14.53 million in 2024. Agriculture is the country¡¯s largest employer and plays a key role in poverty reduction and rural development, providing income for 57% of rural households and employment for 52% of the labor force.

In addition to agriculture, mining is another major source of revenue for Guinea, accounting for the bulk of export earnings and approximately 18% of GDP. The Simandou 2040 program¡ªone of the country¡¯s largest mining projects¡ªillustrates this dynamic. With an estimated US$20 billion in investments currently being implemented, the project has already created thousands of jobs during the construction phase. The government is currently developing the Simandou program with the primary objective of using the project as a lever during the exploitation phase to diversify Guinea¡¯s economy, foster inclusive growth, and sustainably reduce poverty.

Political Context

On April 1, President Mamadi Doumbouya announced that the constitutional referendum would be held on September 21, 2025. The announcement came as the government had just received an initial shipment of electoral materials, including the first biometric kits for citizen registration.

The Prime Minister has repeatedly reaffirmed that all elections will take place in 2025, paving the way for a return to constitutional order. However, one of the main challenges remains the establishment of the electoral register, a process that is still ongoing.

As part of an institutional reform aimed at restoring state authority, the government has launched a review of the political party registry and is regulating internal party functioning, following a 90-day period of observation, suspension, and evaluation.

On March 28, the President granted a presidential pardon to former junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara for health reasons. Convicted in July 2023 and sentenced to 20 years in prison for crimes against humanity related to the 2009 massacre, he has now been released¡ªa decision that has divided public opinion. Some view it as a gesture in favor of national reconciliation, while others see it as politically motivated.

This decision comes amid a tense socio-political climate marked by restrictions on civil liberties, arrests, and disappearances of political opponents and civil society members. The government maintains that investigations are underway, but concerns remain over the transparency of the process and its commitment to safeguarding freedom of expression.

Economic Context

• Driven primarily by investment, Guinea¡¯s economy grew by 5.7% in 2024 (3.1% per capita), up from 5.5% in 2023, despite the explosion of a fuel depot in December 2023.
• Annual inflation (measured as inflation in the capital) rose to 8.1% in 2024 due to the temporary impact of the depot explosion. However, after peaking at 9.3% in January 2024, inflation gradually declined to 6.4% by December.
• Despite an increase in revenues, higher investment spending and interest payments widened the fiscal deficit to an estimated 3.0% of GDP in 2024, compared to 1.8% in 2023. Public debt also rose, reaching 42.1% of GDP, up from 41.4% the previous year.
• Although GDP per capita increased by 3.1%, the poverty rate (defined as living on less than US$3.65 per day, 2017 PPP) rose slightly to 51.9%, driven by higher inflation and insufficient job creation in the non-mining sector.
• Inflation is expected to decline to an average of 7.0% over 2025¨C2027, while GDP growth is projected to reach 6.2% in 2025 and average 10.1% over 2026¨C2027, mainly driven by the mining sector, particularly with the launch of new iron ore production in 2026.
• Downside risks include uncertainties surrounding the political transition timeline, which could lead to social instability and delay reform implementation. Additional risks stem from global trade uncertainty and commodity price volatility. Adverse weather conditions could also impact infrastructure and slow production. Conversely, faster reform implementation could boost growth.

Last Updated: Apr 09, 2025

The most recent Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Guinea (2018¨C2023) was completed in June 2023. A new CPF is under preparation for the 2026¨C2031 period and is expected to be submitted to the Board of Executive Directors in the third quarter of 2025. A Completion and Learning Review of the previous CPF is being finalized. It consolidates the current portfolio through a people-centered approach aligned with the government's interim reference plan.

Guinea¡¯s three-year allocation under IDA20 amounts to US$521 million. Of this amount, US$226 million was committed in FY23 and FY24 to scale up ongoing operations in the areas of social protection, local governance, regional statistics, digital connectivity, and health security. A development policy operation originally planned for FY24 is now scheduled for FY25. A new operation aimed at strengthening health system transformation was approved in FY25. Additional operations targeting improved access to water and sanitation, climate resilience, food security and fisheries, electricity access, and secondary education for girls may follow in the same fiscal year and beyond, into FY26.

The current portfolio comprises 12 projects, with a total commitment of approximately US$867 million, including six national operations and six regional operations. This also includes two co-financing trust funds under the Global Financing Facility, totaling US$26 million. As of March 11, 2025, the undisbursed balance stood at US$556.6 million, or 64% of the total commitment. On the same date, the national disbursement ratio for Investment Project Financing (IPF) in FY25 was 29.57%, with an annualized ratio of 42.71%. The portfolio covers most of the country¡¯s key economic sectors, including health, education, social protection, energy, agriculture, mining, and the environment.

Last Updated: Apr 09, 2025

Below are some of the key results achieved through World Bank¨Cfinanced projects:

Strengthening the Health System

A. World Bank¨Cfinanced health projects, including the Primary Health Services Improvement Project (2015¨C2020) and the Health Services and Capacity Strengthening Project (PRSCS, 2018¨C2024), have contributed to strengthening reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health services in Guinea, particularly in the regions of Kankan, Kindia, Faranah, and Lab¨¦. Through the PRSCS, more than 5.9 million health visits have been recorded, 400 health workers and over 2,500 community actors have been recruited and trained, and more than 162,000 women and children have gained free access to essential care.

In 2024, a new Health System Transformation Project (US$95 million) was launched, building on the achievements of the PRSCS and expanding interventions to seven of the country¡¯s eight regions.

Finally, the Results-Based Financing (RBF) strategy significantly improved the quality of care in the four targeted districts, with quality scores increasing from 45% to 70% between 2021 and 2023.

B. Guinea also benefits from two regional programs financed by the World Bank to strengthen health security systems. The Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement Project in West Africa ¨C Phase 1 (REDISSE 1) laid the foundation for a national epidemic detection and response mechanism.

In 2023, the World Bank approved the first phase of the Regional Health Security Project in West and Central Africa (PreSeS), implemented in Guinea, Cabo Verde, and Liberia under the coordination of the West African Health Organization (WAHO). Based on the ¡°One Health¡± approach, the program aims to strengthen preparedness for health emergencies, ensure continuity of essential services, and promote regional cooperation on cross-cutting issues such as disease surveillance, antimicrobial resistance, and food safety.

Electricity Access

The World Bank is supporting Guinea¡¯s energy sector through several investment projects, with an active portfolio of US$155 million. This includes the Electricity Access Scale-Up Project (US$50 million), the Guinea-Mali Interconnection Project (US$75 million), and the Gambia River Basin Development Organization (OMVG) Project (US$29 million).

A second phase of the Electricity Access Scale-Up Project (US$200 million) is currently under preparation. In response to the energy crisis, the World Bank also provided US$24 million to support electricity imports from Senegal.

Food Security through Commercial Agriculture Development

The World Bank is supporting the development of commercial agriculture through the Guinea Commercial Agriculture Development Project (PDACG), which has been under implementation since 2020 (US$100 million). The project has mobilized more than US$17 million in private investment in value chains including maize, fonio, cashew, poultry, fruits, and vegetables. In 2024, a total of 14,832 jobs were created through project-supported investments. A partnership with the World Food Programme (WFP) enabled the development of 2,000 hectares for rice production in Bok¨¦ and Kindia. The project also contributed to strengthening the national food quality control system by supporting the training of technicians and equipping the Guinean Institute for Standardization and the National Office for Quality Control.

Support to Social Protection: Adaptive Safety Nets and Community-Based Support

Guinea has made significant progress in its social protection system, including the creation of the National Agency for Economic and Social Inclusion (ANIES) and the institutionalization of the Unified Social Registry in 2020 and 2024 within the framework of the Social Development and Indigence Fund (FDSI). The World Bank is supporting Guinea through the Emergency Response and Support to the Nafa Program (PRU-APN), which aims to establish an adaptive safety net system to meet the needs of vulnerable households, build resilience, and reduce poverty. To date, the PRU-APN has facilitated emergency cash transfers for 131,865 households, particularly benefiting women. Regular cash transfers have also been delivered to 58,797 vulnerable households in several prefectures.

Last Updated: Apr 09, 2025

Alongside the World Bank, the other main development partners active in Guinea include the African Development Bank, the European Union, the Islamic Development Bank, the French Development Agency (AFD), and USAID.

The United Nations coordinates interventions focused on security sector reform. Guinea also receives bilateral assistance and support from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union.

Emerging development partners¡ªincluding several Arab countries, China, Brazil, Russia, and India¡ªtend to focus on sectors where the country has a comparative advantage, such as mining and agriculture, or on areas where public-private partnerships may rapidly evolve into fully private ventures.

Last Updated: Apr 09, 2025