½­ÄÏÌåÓý

Past Event

ECA Talk: The Geography of EU Discontent and the Regional Development Trap

While many regions in recent years have experienced significant growth and prosperity, others are either stuck ¡ª or at risk of becoming stuck ¡ª in a development trap. These regions face declining economic growth, employment, and productivity compared to their neighbors and their own historical trends. Prolonged periods in such a trap are fueling political discontent and unrest, often manifesting as increased support for anti-system parties during elections.

 by Andr¨¦s Rodr¨ªguez-Pose, the Princesa de Asturias Chair and a Professor of Economic Geography at the London School of Economics

While many regions in recent years have experienced significant growth and prosperity, others are either stuck ¡ª or at risk of becoming stuck ¡ª in a development trap. These regions face declining economic growth, employment, and productivity compared to their neighbors and their own historical trends. Prolonged periods in such a trap are fueling political discontent and unrest, often manifesting as increased support for anti-system parties during elections.

During this ECA Talk, Prof Rodr¨ªguez-Pose presented the findings of his that explored the relationship between the risk, intensity, and duration of regional development traps and the rise of political discontent across the European Union (EU). Using regional-level econometric analysis, this study examines support for Eurosceptic parties in national elections between 2014 and 2022 as a proxy for this discontent. The findings reveal a strong connection between regions stuck in development traps and increased support for Eurosceptic parties. Additionally, the data suggests that the longer a region experiences stagnation, the greater the support for parties opposed to European integration.
 

DATE: February 18, 2025

TIME: 9:00 - 10:30 AM ET

CHAIR: Ivailo Izvorski, Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia at the World Bank

CONTACT: Office of the Chief Economist Office in Europe and Central Asia

[email protected]

portrait photo of Andres Rodriguez-Pose

Andr¨¦s Rodr¨ªguez-Pose - Speaker

Professor of Economic Geography at the LSE

Andr¨¦s Rodr¨ªguez-Pose is the Princesa de Asturias Chair and a Professor of Economic Geography at the London School of Economics. He is the Director of the Ca?ada Blanch Centre LSE and was Head of the Department of Geography and Environment. He chairs the High-Level Group on the future of Cohesion policy that is tasked with proposing the new Cohesion Policy for the European Union (EU) post 2027.

He has been President of the Regional Science Association International (RSAI) and served as its Vice-President. He was also Vice-President and Secretary of the European Regional Science Association. He has a long track record of research in regional growth and inequality, fiscal and political decentralization, institutions, discontent and populism, innovation, migration, and development policies and strategies. This research has been frequently used by policy- and decision-makers, acting regularly as advisor to international organizations and governments.

Image

Somik V. Lall - Discussant

Senior Adviser to the Chief Economist of the World Bank Group

Somik Lall is Senior Adviser to the Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. He has recently directed the World Bank's 2024 World Development Report on the ¡°Middle Income Trap¡± that examines how middle-income countries can break into the ranks of the wealthiest economies. Previously, he headed the climate economics and policy team in the World Bank¡¯s Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions vice presidency. His other roles include being the Global Lead for territorial development and Lead Economist for the World Bank¡¯s Cities Practice where he developed a novel data-driven approach to help city mayors rapidly respond to protect their citizens from the ravages of COVID 19. Lall is widely published in academic and policy journals. He also teaches at Johns Hopkins University and has been a Visiting Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi.

photo of Ivailo Izvorski

Ivailo Izvorski - Host & Chair

Chief Economist for the Europe and Central Asia region at the World Bank

Ivailo Izvorski is the Chief Economist for the Europe and Central Asia region. He assumed this position on December 1, 2022. Since joining the World Bank in 2005 as a Senior Country Economist for Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management sector Unit, he has held various positions ¡ª including Lead Economist and Practice Manager in Europe and Central Asia, and his most recent assignment as Practice Manager for the Global Macro, Growth and Debt unit in the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment (MTI) Global Practice. Ivailo is one of the coauthors of Diversified Development: Making the Most of Natural Resources in Eurasia. He has worked on countries in Europe, Central Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, and Africa at the World Bank, the Institute of International Finance, and the IMF. Ivailo holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University.

Date: February 18, 2025

Time: 09:00 AM - 10:30 AM ET

Location: Virtual