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Natural Capital Data Hub

Economic growth and human development have advanced remarkably, but this progress often comes at the expense of degrading and overexploiting natural resources, raising critical questions about its sustainability. Is today¡¯s growth jeopardizing the wellbeing of future generations?

Gross domestic product (GDP) has long been the primary measure of economic performance. While it effectively captures the production of goods and services, GDP does not account for natural resource depletion, environmental damage, or the long-term costs of growth. It also overlooks the value of critical natural assets such as clean air, water, forests, and ecosystems.

The World Bank¡¯s Changing Wealth of Nations (CWON) program addresses these limitations by providing the most comprehensive and rigorous wealth

database available today. Unlike GDP, CWON measures wealth¡ªa nation¡¯s ability to sustain economic progress over time¡ªby encompassing produced capital, such as factories and infrastructure; natural capital, including forests and fossil fuel reserves; human capital, which reflects education and health; and net foreign assets. By monitoring real wealth per capita, CWON assesses whether economic growth is achieved by expanding or depleting a country¡¯s productive base. Sustained increases in wealth per capita ensure that future generations inherit the same or greater opportunities for production and consumption.

As a pioneering effort in wealth measurement, CWON produces a publicly accessible and methodologically rigorous database, built on internationally endorsed principles from the  and the . This ensures its comparability with other economic metrics like GDP, providing policymakers and researchers with vital insights into the sustainability of economic progress.

Global wealth is predominantly concentrated in high-income countries.

In 2020, high-income countries held over two-thirds of global wealth in nominal terms, despite a 15 percent decline in their share since 1995. Meanwhile, the wealth gap has narrowed significantly for upper- and lower-middle-income countries, whose combined share of global wealth has doubled, rising from 15 percent in 1995 to over a quarter in 2020. However, low-income and lower-middle-income countries, which are home to half of the world's population, account for only 7 percent of global wealth. Notably, there is little evidence of the wealth gap closing for low-income countries, as their share has remained below 1 percent since 1995, in stark contrast to the progress seen in middle-income countries.

Average global real wealth per capita increased by 21 percent between 1995 and 2020 and converged for most regions but remains unequally distributed.

By 2020, all regions experienced growth in real wealth per capita compared to 1995, with the most significant increases observed in the Middle East and North Africa, where wealth nearly doubled, and in Latin America and the Caribbean, which saw a 66 percent rise (Figure 2). This growth was primarily driven by significant gains in human and produced capital. However, in nominal terms, these regions started from a low base, and their share of global wealth has not seen substantial growth.

In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa has faced a slowdown in wealth accumulation, with a declining trend in real wealth per capita since 2006, primarily due to the depletion of natural capital assets. By 2020, the region accounted for only 2 percent of global wealth. Meanwhile, 88 percent of global wealth is concentrated in North America, Europe and Central Asia (dominated by the European Union), and East Asia and the Pacific (primarily China and Japan).

While two-thirds of the 151 countries in the sample have increased real wealth per capita between 1995 and 2020, 27 countries show a decline or little change.

Most of the countries experiencing a decline in wealth per capita are in Sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 3), highlighting the unsustainability of their economic progress. This trend reflects a pattern where countries are depleting their asset portfolios at a faster rate than they are replenishing them. A significant factor contributing to this decline is conflict¡ªnearly half of the countries with declining wealth are classified by the World Bank as affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV).

Trends in real wealth per capita are driven by changes in the asset portfolio relative to population growth, with starkly different trends across asset categories.

The CWON wealth measure is composed of four main asset categories: produced capital, nonrenewable natural capital, renewable natural capital, and human capital. Among these, human capital constitutes the largest share of nominal wealth (Figure 4) and has grown by approximately 9 percent per capita since 1995. Produced capital has shown significant growth, increasing by 47 percent per capita between 1995 and 2020.

In contrast, nonrenewable natural capital has experienced a slight decline per capita during the same period. This category is the most volatile, influenced by changes in resource availability, technological advancements, and price fluctuations. Renewable natural capital, which has the potential to regenerate if sustainably managed, has declined by more than 20 percent per capita over the past 25 years, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.

Renewable natural capital wealth per capita has decreased, with trends varying across regions and assets.

Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa have seen the largest declines in renewable natural capital wealth per capita, at approximately 40 percent, while South Asia has experienced a reduction of about one-third. These declines are primarily driven by population growth and the overexploitation of nearly all renewable natural resources covered in this report, including forests, marine fish stocks, and mangroves. Marine fish stocks have faced the steepest drop, with their value plummeting by over 45 percent since 1995 (Figure 5). Other components of renewable natural capital, such as agricultural land¡ªwhich constitutes 73 percent of its global value¡ªand non-timber forest recreation ecosystem services (12 percent), have also declined, though less dramatically. In contrast, renewable energy from hydropower has increased by 23 percent over the same 25-year period, now representing 7 percent of the total value of renewable natural capital.

Global nonrenewable natural capital, including oil, natural gas, coal, and minerals, declined by 2.5 percent per capita between 1995 and 2020, with a slight increase in oil wealth offset by decreases in coal, natural gas, and minerals.

The low-carbon transition is expected to impact these estimates in the short to medium term. However, significant declines in the value of carbon-intensive fossil fuels¡ªaside from coal¡ªhave not yet materialized. Fossil fuels still account for nearly 60 percent of the global value of nonrenewable natural capital (Figure 6).

Between 1995 and 2020, coal experienced a sharp and consistent decline in wealth per capita, while natural gas showed fluctuations but maintained a relatively higher value than coal. Oil wealth remained stable over this period, contributing 43 percent of the total value of nonrenewable natural capital in 2020, followed by minerals at 36 percent. Natural gas and coal accounted for 14 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in high-income and emerging economies have led to substantial growth in produced capital wealth.

Globally, produced capital per capita has increased by an average of 47 percent since 1995, growing faster than population growth in all regions (Figure 7). South Asia experienced remarkable growth, with produced capital per capita expanding nearly 500 percent, though starting from a very low base.

The majority of produced capital assets remain concentrated in North America, Europe, and East Asia, which together account for 94 percent of the global value. These regions have seen steady but comparatively lower growth rates. Sub-Saharan Africa, while achieving a 129 percent increase in produced capital wealth over 25 years, faced rapid population growth, resulting in a modest 17 percent increase in produced capital per capita between 1995 and 2020.

Human capital, which accounted for 60 percent of the world¡¯s total wealth value in 2020, has grown consistently for the past 25 years due to increasing labor force participation and higher returns to education.

The share of human capital in total wealth (in nominal terms) tends to rise as countries advance economically. Globally, real human capital per capita grew by 9 percent between 1995 and 2020, though regional trends vary significantly (Figure 8).

In nominal terms, human capital is predominantly concentrated in high- and upper-middle-income countries, particularly in North America, Europe and Central Asia, and East Asia and the Pacific (Figure 8). These regions have seen modest growth, with increases of 12 percent in North America and 16 percent in East Asia and the Pacific. In contrast, the Middle East and North Africa, along with Latin America and the Caribbean, recorded much larger increases of 82 percent and 62 percent, respectively, though these gains came from a considerably lower base.

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